Wellington Castillo
Catcher/ Age: 30/ Career: Cubs ‘10-’15, Mariners ’15, D-backs ’15-’16, Orioles ’17
From: Baltimore/ To: Oakland/ Contract: 3 years, $36m
2017 Stats: 96 GP, .282 AVG., 20 HR, 54 RBI
A quietly reliable option at the catching position, Castillo has put up several consistent defensive and offensive years. After batting .282 last year, he ranked among the top catchers in all of baseball. After declining a $7 million player option from Baltimore, Castillo will test free agency and demand a solid contract. With the recent arrest of current catcher Bruce Maxwell, Oakland might be the most in need of a catcher in baseball, giving them the opportunity to cash in on Castillo.
Jonathan Lucroy
Catcher/ Age: 31/ Career: Brewers ’10-’16, Rangers ’16-’17, Rockies ’17
From: Colorado/ To: Colorado/ Contract: 1 year, $9m
2017 Stats: 123 GP, .265 AVG, 6 HR, 40 RBI
One of the most consistent catchers over the past several years in baseball, Lucroy has finally hit free agency. After spending many years in Milwaukee receiving a couple all-star nods, he was dealt to Texas in the 2016 deadline and then dealt to Colorado a year later in the 2017 deadline. After a couple of recent inconsistent years, Lucroy’s amazing bat would do great if he stays at the extremely hitter-friendly Coors Field. I can see Lucroy re-signing for one year to prove his worth and get a bigger contract next offseason.
Eric Hosmer
First Base/ Age: 28/ Career: Royals ’11-’17
From: Kansas City/ To: Boston/ Contract: 5 years, $110m
2017 Stats: 162 GP, .318 AVG, 25 HR, 94 RBI, .385 OBP
Another young star hitting free agency for the first time, Hosmer will look for one of the bigger contracts of the offseason. Putting together another great year in his tremendous tenure in Kansas City that helped lead them to a World Series win in 2015. Several teams will definitely be after Hosmer, including his current team Kansas City, but something tells me Boston is looking for that one extra bat to be AL champions in 2018. Will they pay a ton for Hosmer? Or will it be someone else? I lean towards Hosmer because he can play first and DH which are both needs for Boston. Plus the short porch around the Peski Pole in right field at Fenway might just bolster the lefty’s homerun numbers well past 30 per year.
Carlos Santana
First Base/ Age: 31/ Career: Indians ’10-’17
From: Cleveland/ To: Cleveland/ Contract: 3 years, $48m
2017 Stats: 154 GP, .259 AVG, 23 HR, 79 RBI, 37 Doubles
Being a key part of the Tribe’s offensive attack for several years, Santana finally hits free agency for the first time in his career. With his great glove at first and power bat, Carlos will definitely require some solid pay this free agency. After just denying Cleveland’s 1-year, $18m qualifying offer, Santana will look for some longer term commitment from a team for around the same price. Many teams can use Santana in their order, but I see Cleveland retaining him for a 3-year deal to help them try to make it back to the World Series in 2018.
Lucas Duda
First Base/ Age: 31/ Career: Mets ’10-’17, Rays ’17
From: Tampa Bay/ To: Seattle/ Contract: 1 year, $6m
2017 Stats: 127 GP, .217 AVG, 30 HR, 64 RBI
The injury plagued Lucas Duda is one of the weaker options in this years Free Agency. His inconsistency at the plate and below average glove have driven Mets fans, like myself, crazy for years. After being dealt to the Rays at the deadline, Duda put up good power stats as he always does. Duda probably won’t receive much more than a 1-year deal and Seattle could be a team to bring him in for cheap. Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Boston, Mets, and even the Yankees are teams that could be considering the slugger this offseason as well.
Logan Morrison
First Base/ Age: 30/ Career: Marlins ’10-’13, Mariners ’14-’15, Rays ’16-’17
From: Tampa Bay/ To: Kansas City/ Contract: 3 years, $39m
2017 Stats: 149 GP, .246 AVG, 38 HR, 85 RBI, .353 OBP
Bouncing around over the past few years, Morrison has had a difficult time establishing himself as the player he is capable of being. With glimpses of star potential, and a very consistent 2017 season including 38 homers. The lefty power hitter could be a high likelihood to replace Hosmer in his hometown of Kansas City. A match that seems very realistic if Hosmer signs elsewhere this offseason.
Neil Walker
Second Base/ Age: 32/ Career: Pirates ’09-’15, Mets ’16-’17, Brewers ’17
From: Milwaukee/ To: LA Angels/ Contract: 4 years, $48m
2017 Stats: 111 GP, .265 AVG, 14 HR, 49 RBI, .364 OBP
One of the more consistent second basemen in all of baseball, Walker has put up solid stats through his time in the big leagues. Playing several years as the 2B of his hometown Pirates, he was traded to the Mets during the offseason before 2016 where he spent a year and a half. Spending his second half of 2017 in Milwaukee, Walker put up solid stats for a team who just missed a Wild Card playoff spot. Several team will be after Walker without a doubt including his previous teams, Pittsburgh, New York, and Milwaukee. As I predicted last offseason before he re-signed the qualifying offer with the Mets, I can see Walker winding up in Anaheim for a borderline playoff team in desperate need of a second baseman.
Zack Cozart
Short Stop/ Age: 32/ Career: Reds ’11-’17
From: Cincinnati/ To: Cincinnati/ Contract: 2 years, $20m
2017 Stats: 122 GP, .295 AVG, 24 HR, 62 RBI, .383 OBP
Coming off a career year that lead to an all-star nod for the veteran short stop, Cozart is the top short stop option in a weak free agency class at the position. The difficult situation for Cozart is although he wants and maybe even deserves a $40 million contract, it’s just not likely. Most high powered teams at this point have a short stop they are happy with and Cozart draws interest from several teams that don’t have much money to spend in free agency. Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Arizona being a few can only offer Cozart a very limited contract. I see him returning to the Reds for a two-year deal to possibly draw further interest if he can keep up his recent success.
Eduardo Nunez
Third Base/ Age: 30/ Career: Yankees ’10-’13, Twins ’14-’16, Giants ’16-’17, Red Sox ’17
From: Boston/ To: Minnesota/ Contract: 3 years, $36m
2017 Stats: 114 GP, .313 AVG, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 33 Doubles
A hot commodity over the past couple of seasons, Eduardo Nunez has developed himself into a very good infield option. Putting up some productive stats in Minnesota and later traded to the Giants and dealt at the deadline to the competitive Red Sox, he has shown himself to be a team player and a leader. Without a doubt many teams will be trying to pursue the 3B/SS/2B. I can see him returning to Minnesota to become the everyday 3B or SS with a young Twins team on the verge of being competitive very soon.
Mike Moustakas
Third Base/ Age: 29/ Career: Royals ’11-’17
From: Kansas City/ To: Kansas City/ Contract: 5 years, $100m
2017 Stats: 148 GP, .272 AVG, 38 HR, 85 RBI
One of the most productive 3B’s in all of the game, “Moose” will draw a lot of interest and a big deal in free agency. Being a cornerstone of the Royals recent dynasty that won the World Series in 2015, Moustakas hits the free agent market for the first time in his career. A lot of teams will be after Moose and some notable ones will be: Mets, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Giants, and Royals. My thought is that the Royals will retain one of their many top free agents and I think that one will be Moose. Although Hosmer is the top priority, it seems like many more tempting options await as Moustakas can retain in KC for a price he might not even get anywhere else.
Todd Frazier
Third Base/ Age: 31/ Career: Reds ’11-’15, White Sox ’16-’17, Yankees ’17
From: NY Yankees/ To: San Francisco/ Contract: 2 years, $24m
2017 Stats: 147 GP, .213 AVG, 27 HR, 76 RBI, .344 OBP
One of the best power hitting infielders in baseball, Frazier became an icon as a big personality on the competitive Yankees this past year. Known for his great glove at third and absurd pop, Frazier lacks the ability to keep a respectable batting average. This reason alone I think will keep him from getting a long-term contract beyond three years. There are a few good fits for the “Toddfather” but San Francisco can be a key landing spot. A team who is looking to bounce back from a very disappointing season, can upgrade their lineup by bringing in Frazier to play the hot corner.
J.D. Martinez
Outfielder/ Age: 30/ Career: Astros ’11-’13, Tigers ’14-’17, Diamondbacks ’17
From: Arizona/ To: LA Dodgers / Contract: 7 years, $175m
2017 Stats: 119 GP, .303 AVG, 45 HR, 104 RBI
The most sought after player this free agency, J.D. is looking to cash his dynamic season into big money. Many teams are interested in the 30-year-old OF and rightfully so but not many can pay the contract that he will demand. Some teams that will come down to the end of J.D.’s decision I think are Boston, Arizona, Baltimore, LA, and Toronto. The LA Dodgers have a bit of an edge I feel since they will look to add an extra piece to an already great lineup. But some dark horses to not forget about are going to be the Blue Jays, D-backs, and Orioles. All these teams are looking to bolster their lineups and have money to spend on a big time player. My prediction is the Dodgers but I wouldn’t be surprised with Toronto or Arizona either.
Lorenzo Cain
Outfielder/ Age: 31/ Career: Brewers ’10, Royals ’11-’17
From: Kansas City/ To: Texas/ Contract: 5 years/ $90m
2017 Stats: 155 GP, .303 AVG, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 26 SB
Another valuable piece from the Royals that hits this years free agency is all-star OF Lorenzo Cain. One of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the past few years, Cain will find a multi-year deal with someone this offseason. Several teams have been linked to Lorenzo including Kansas City, Toronto, NY Mets, and Texas. Texas makes sense as they have money freed up and are looking for a consistent CF. I would love to see the Mets sign Cain and find an answer to their OF need but I’m leaning towards a 5-year deal in Texas to be the landing spot for him.
Carlos Gonzalez
Outfielder/ Age: 32/ Career: Athletics ’08, Rockies ’09-’17
From: Colorado/ To: Baltimore/ Contract: 2 years, $22m
2017 Stats: 136 GP, .260 AVG, 14 HR, 57 RBI
After a disappointing season for the great CarGo, many people have begun to question if he is approaching the decline of his career. After spending all of his successful career in Colorado, Gonzalez might be looking for a new start as he approaches his mid-30’s. Everyone knows the potential bat Gonzalez can add to your lineup so he will still get several large contracts. I can see Baltimore adding the veteran slugger to an already solid Outfield of Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, and Trey Mancini. The O’s might just be the landing spot Gonzalez needs to bounce back to his elite form.
Carlos Gomez
Outfielder/ Age: 31/ Career: Mets ’07, Twins ’08-’09, Brewers ’10-’15, Astros ’15-’16, Rangers ’16-’17
From: Texas/ To: San Francisco/ Contract: 3 years, $27m
2017 Stats: 105 GP, .255 AVG, 17 HR, 51 RBI
It seems like every year Carlos Gomez is a free agent as he never really received the long-term deal he thought his ability would give him. A lot of doubt around the successful outfielder is based off of his injury history and slumps where it seems he can’t hit at all. Gomez has spent the last few years on a decline with Houston and Texas but was able to put together a respectable, yet limited, 2017 campaign. Rumor is the San Francisco Giants are top buyers for Gomez to become their everyday CF. Only a couple situations seem likely and Gomez heading to the Bay Area is the most likely of them all.
Jose Bautista
Outfielder/ Age: 37/ Career: Orioles ’04, Rays ’04, Royals ’04, Pirates ’04-’08, Blue Jays ’08-’17
From: Toronto/ To: Tampa Bay/ Contract: 1 year, $6m
2017 Stats: 157 GP, .204 AVG, 23 HR, 65 RBI
One of the most well known names in baseball over the past several years, Joey Bats hits the free agent market. A very mysterious career for the great slugger as he really never hit his peak until a few years into his Blue Jays tenure. Becoming a cornerstone of the Toronto franchise for several years, Bautista delivered thrilling throw outs from RF and demolishing home runs. At 37, Bautista has been on a decline the past couple years especially dealing with it badly this year where he played all but 5 games and batted a horrendous .204 on the year. Although his great Toronto tenure is all but over, someone will bring in the veteran I think on a fair 1-year deal. Tampa Bay has been linked with Bautista a lot and I think they will bring Bautista back to his old roots in Florida to end his career in St. Petersburg.
Jay Bruce
Outfielder/ Age: 30/ Career: Reds ’08-’16, Mets ’16-’17, Indians ’17
From: Cleveland/ To: Houston/ Contract: 4 years, $60m
2017 Stats: 146 GP, .254 AVG, 36 HR, 101 RBI, 29 Doubles
One of the hottest commodities this free agency has to offer, Bruce will be looking for a big deal. After having an amazing bounce back season this past year with the Mets and Indians, Bruce has now put together back-to-back 30 home run seasons. At 30 years old Bruce has made it clear he wants to win and be a starting RF on a winning ball club. I can see the defending champs grabbing Jay for around a 4-year deal to add to their already amazing hitting attack. A Bruce signing could be very likely as the Astros are probably salivating over the idea of adding a Jay Bruce, a true clean-up hitter, to a lineup that’s already a pitchers nightmare
Jake Arrieta
Starting Pitcher/ Age: 31/ Career: Orioles ’10-’13, Cubs ’13-’17
From: CHI Cubs/ To: CHI Cubs/ Contract: 4 years, $92m
2017 Stats: 30 GS, 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 163 Ks
After becoming one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers, Arrieta took longer to develop than most. Not becoming successful until his Cubs tenure, Arrieta has now put together a Cy Young season, an all-star appearance, and a World Series ring while being in the Windy City. Jake is probably the most sought after pitcher in this years class so many teams will try to snag the star from the Cubs. Texas, Toronto, and Milwaukee have all been linked to Arrieta but staying put in Chicago makes the most sense to me. They have the money and the need and he owes his success to the Cubs for giving him the opportunity they did. Arrieta will stay put in Chi-town.
Yu Darvish
Starting Pitcher/ Age: 31/ Career: Rangers ’12-’17, Dodgers ’17
From: LA Dodgers/ To: Baltimore/ Contract: 5 years, $100m
2017 Stats: 31 GS, 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 209 Ks
Now I will begin this by saying that this contract might seem absurd but I believe is very realistic. Darvish is a veteran after coming over to the MLB in 2012 he has performed excellent and been a cornerstone of the Rangers rotation for years. His recent struggles with the Dodgers during their World Series loss might give some teams doubt but inevitably will return back to one key point, this man is an ace. Baltimore has not seen good pitching in many years and it truly is what’s keeping them from making any impact in the postseason. The O’s have all the bats they need but need to be loose with their pitching spending this offseason. Darvish and the O’s seem like a perfect match but Baltimore will have to beat out a bunch of teams in order to get there.
Alex Cobb
Starting Pitcher/ Age: 30/ Career: Rays ’11-’17
From: Tampa Bay/ To: NY Yankees/ Contract: 3 years, $45m
2017 Stats: 29 GS, 12-10, 3.66 ERA, 128 Ks
Alex Cobb has quietly been a valuable starter in all of baseball over the last few years. During his long tenure with Tampa Bay he has been through some ups and downs and always stayed on track. After finishing 2014 and 2015 with an ERA under a 3 in full seasons, Cobb has shown he has great ability to be a competitive teams 2 or 3 starter. Cobb is also very interested in signing with a contender and the Yankees and Cubs are atop his list. The Cubs might not be as willing in this situation if they can bring back Arrieta so I can see the Yanks swooping down and grabbing him for 3 or 4 years. A solid middle of the rotation guy behind Severino and Tanaka could be a mutual fit for Cobb and the Yanks.
C.C. Sabathia
Starting Pitcher/ Age: 37/ Career: Indians ’01-’08, Brewers ’08, Yankees ’09-’17
From: NY Yankees/ To: NY Yankees/ Contract: 2 years, $14m
2017 Stats: 27 GS, 14-5, 3.69 ERA, 120 Ks
Amazing to think it’s been about 16 years since the big lefty made his MLB debut in the Land. Well 6 all-star appearances, a Cy Young, and a World Series ring later, C.C. has reached the end of his effective, yet frustrating, contract with the Yanks. As he has seemed to be going downhill over the past few years and eventually went through rehab for alcohol, C.C. put together a very solid 2017 campaign and added several dominant starts throughout the playoffs. Sabathia has proven that although he won’t make $25m a year like he had been with the Yanks, he’s still a valuable starter and can be worth a few million for maybe even two-years. His desire is to stay in the Bronx where he has made his home and I think the Yanks will find a way to bring back their beloved pitcher.
Jeremy Hellickson
Starting Pitcher/ Age: 30/ Career: Rays ’10-’14, D-backs ’15, Phillies ’16-’17, Orioles ’17
From: Baltimore/ To: Texas/ Contract: 2 years, $24m
2017 Stats: 30 GS, 8-11, 5.43 ERA, 96 Ks
A very inconsistent performer, Hellickson has shown glimpses of success and bust throughout his career. After winning Rookie of the Year with the Rays in 2011, Hellickson could never become the ace the Rays wanted from him. After finding his way to Philly he was able to put together a solid 2016 season leading to him accepting the Phillies 1-year, $17m qualifying offer. With Philly tanking, and Hellickson being worth a good amount, he was sent to Baltimore where he put together a horrendous 5.43 ERA with the two combined. Yet at only 30, Hellickson has shown he can be a solid 2 or 3 option in a respectable rotation and at this point that might be what Texas is looking for. Definitely don’t expect anything too chaotic with Hellickson’s contract.
Jason Vargas
Starting Pitcher/ Age: 34/ Career: Marlins ’05-’06, Mets ’07, Mariners ’09-’12, Angels ’13, Royals ’14-’17
From: Kansas City/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 2 years, $16m
2017 Stats: 32 GS, 18-11, 4.16 ERA, 134 Ks
After having his most successful year of his career, the journeyman lefty will look for a contract similar to his $8m a year he had with Kansas City. Playing since 05, Vargas has always put up solid stats as a 3rd or 4th rotation kind of guy. Making his first all-star appearance with Kansas City this year, gives teams some upside that he still has a couple of productive years in him. The Mets are looking for a 5th reliever/ bullpen guy to give them depth in their injury-prone, yet dominant when healthy, rotation. Vargas could be just that as a Mets reunion I think is very likely for 2018.
Pat Neshek
Relief Pitcher/ Age: 37/ Career: Twins ’06-’10, Padres ’11, Athletics ’12-’13, Cardinals ’14, Astros ’15-’16, Phillies ’17, Rockies ’17
From: Colorado/ To: Houston/ Contract: 2 years, $14m
2017 Stats: 62.1 IP, 5-3, 1.59 ERA, 69 Ks
A career journeyman reliever, Neshek has been able to stick around in the league through his solid numbers and nasty side-arm rotation. Putting up dynamic stats this year leading to an all-star appearance with Philly, Neshek looks to get a solid bullpen role with a contender. Houston can use some bullpen help and the addition of Neshek could be a big one to help out Will Harris and Ken Giles in the back of that World Series winning bullpen.
Wade Davis
Closing Pitcher/ Age: 32/ Career: Rays ’09-’12, Royals ’13-’16, Cubs ’17
From: CHI Cubs/ To: St. Louis/ Contract: 4 years, $64m
2017 Stats: 58.2 IP, 4-2, 2.30 ERA, 32 SVs, 79 Ks
After having to re-invent himself mid-career from a starter to closer, Wade has found his grove and became one of the nastiest and most dynamic 9th inning guys in all of baseball. Easily the best reliever in this free agency class, Davis at only 32 will be looking for a several year deal worth top closer money. Chicago will definitely try hard to retain him but they also have to try and retain several other free agents. St. Louis is in need of a consistent closer and have some money to give which makes me believe they have as good a shot to sign Davis as anyone. $16m a year for a reliable closer to get St. Louis back in the mix of the playoffs is something the Cards would love to do.
Addison Reed
Closing Pitcher/ Age: 28/ Career: White Sox ’11-’13, D-backs ’14-’15, Mets ’15-’17, Red Sox ’17
From: Boston/ To: Detroit/ Contract: 4 years, $32m
2017 Stats: 76 IP, 2-3, 2.84 ERA, 19 SVs, 76 Ks
One of baseball’s best back of the bullpen guys, Reed hits free agency for the first time in his career. After bouncing around for several years and seeing some closer roles with Arizona, New York, and Chicago, the 28-year-old has proven he is a reliable closer and demands closer money. One of my favorite Mets players over the past few years, Reed was consistent no matter what role you put him in. With several teams interested and willing to buy a solid closer such as Oakland, Detroit, Atlanta, and Cubs, Reed will get a deal somewhere. I can see Detroit going all in to sign him to be their closer as they begin to rebuild a young team and look towards the future.
Greg Holland
Closing Pitcher/ Age: 32/ Career: Royals ’10-’15, Rockies ’17
From: Colorado/ To: CHI Cubs/ Contract: 3 years, $39m
2017 Stats: 57.1 IP, 3-6, 3.61 ERA, 41 SVs, 70 Ks
Another dynamic option in the back of the bullpen, Holland looks to cash in on his MLB leading Saves season. Now 32, and missing all of 2016 due to injury, Holland proved that he is still one of the leagues best options in the ninth inning. Helping lead a surprising Rockies team to a Wild Card berth, Holland will gain interest from almost any team looking for a closer. My thought is that Wade Davis might be gone for the Cubs so they will look to bring in a new closer and give Holland the money he wants. Holland is also a cheaper option than Davis and the Cubs might want to save some money for the stacked free agency class next offseason.
The Sports World According To Paul 