MLB free agency is officially under way as we saw the Houston Astros raise up their second banner since 2017, one that can take away any criticism around their legitimacy of being a dynasty. Now the fun begins, as we saw one of the most stacked free agent classes last year, and we’ll see a similarly stacked class this offseason as well. Some of the big bats include Aaron Judge who is now the AL single season HR king, Willson Contreras, former MVP Jose Abreu, and some of the best SS’s in the game, Turner, Bogaerts, Correa, and Swanson.
The pitching class is not too bad either, with deGrom hitting the market for the first time in his career, Verlander, Kershaw, Rodon, and a few of the best relief arms in the game. So without any further or do, as I do every year, here are my predictions on how this offseason will play out for all of the top free agents as well as some of the other notable players. Also included are write-ups for each top player and some other potential options of teams that should be after them. Hope you enjoy!
TOP TIER:
Willson Contreras
C/DH/ Age: 30/ Career: CHC ’16-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’16), 3x All-Star
From: CHI Cubs/ To: CHI Cubs/ Contract: 5 years, $90m (Player Option after Year 3)
Other Potential Options: NY Yankees, San Francisco, LA Angels, St. Louis
2022 Stats: .243 AVG, 22 HR, 55 RBI, .349 OBP
It’s tough to imagine that the steep asking price that the Cubs put on Contreras at this year’s deadline wasn’t an indication that they plan on re-signing him. I know a lot of people have their doubts, but he loves it there and it would be insane if they past up all of those offers just to ultimately get nothing in return for him. I can see Willson taking even a slight discount to stay with the Cubs, but a couple of contenders who are catcher/offense needy are the Yankees and Giants and may look to add the all-star.
Christian Vázquez
C/ Age: 32/ Career: BOS ’14-’22, HOU ’22
Achievements: 2x WS Champion (’18, ’22)
From: Houston/ To: Boston/ Contract: 3 years, $24m
Other Potential Options: Houston, LA Angels
2022 Stats:.274 AVG, 9 HR, 52 RBI,
Another story of a catcher at the deadline who did not want to leave his home, Vazquez was ultimately traded to the Astros. There’s a lot of love in both parties, and although Vazquez is one of the higher productive hitting catchers, he may look to go back to Boston. But that won’t come without some enticing offers, including the Astros who are set to have all three of their catchers hit the market this winter.
José Abreu
1B/DH/ Age: 35/ Career: CWS ’14-’22
Achievements: AL MVP (’20), 3x All-Star, 3x Silver Slugger, 2x AL RBI leader (’19, ’20), AL Rookie of the Year (’14)
From: CHI White Sox/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 3 years, $48m
Other Potential Options: CHI Cubs, San Diego, Boston, CHI White Sox, Texas
2022 Stats: .304 AVG, 15 HR, 75 RBI, .378 OBP
Since entering the league in 2014, Abreu has been one of the most consistent bats in the entire league. He eclipsed his fourth .300+ batting season this year and has only batted as low as .260’s twice. The only concern is around his power, as Jose has always been a consistent 20-30 homer guy but had a career low 15 this year. But at 35, a move to DH could be great for the long haul for Abreu to keep his consistency at the plate. A lot of teams will be in on the slugger, but he’s exactly the kind of bat the Mets are missing. Sure the power could draw concerns but with 243 career homers and high durability, he could be a huge middle of the order addition with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor.
Josh Bell
1B/LF/DH/ Age: 30/ Career: PIT ’16-’20, WSH ’21-’22, SD ’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger
From: San Diego/ To: Houston/ Contract: 5 years, $97.5m (Player Option after Year 4)
Other Potential Options: San Diego, CHI Cubs, Cleveland, Seattle
2022 Stats: .266 AVG, 17 HR, 71 RBI, .362 OBP
Josh Bell is one of those guys that you are always terrified to face, even if the numbers don’t show it. He had an incredible first half of 2022, but after being dealt to San Diego, his bat fell off a little bit. Now hitting the market for the first time in his career, it’s tough to see Bell not attracting a 5 or 6 year deal for around $100m. The Astros have made it to the World Series yet again, and with both Gurriel and Mancini set to be free agents. They could opt to go younger (and better) by going all in on Bell. Adding Bell to that lineup with Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, and Tucker just makes the back-to-back AL champs even more deep.
Trey Mancini
1B/RF/DH/ Age: 30/ Career: BAL ’16-’22, HOU ’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’22), AL Comeback Player of the Year (’21)
From: Houston/ To: Seattle/ Contract: 4 years, $62m (Team Option after Year 3)
Other Potential Options: NY Mets, NY Yankees, Baltimore, St. Louis, Detroit
2022 Stats: .239 AVG, 18 HR, 63 RBI, .710 OPS
Last year I predicted the Mariners would sign Anthony Rizzo. Well, they didn’t and ultimately ended up trading for Carlos Santana early in the season to address the 1B need I was picturing. Now with Santana as an FA, it makes sense for the Mariners to add a veteran bat who can take over 1B. Ty France was an all-star this year but is more of a platoon guy, at 3B and the OF. Mancini could be the perfect fit, as he’ll be a cheaper option than the big names while giving them flexibility as a solid 1B, corner outfielder, and DH. Besides Seattle, the Yankees, Mets and Cardinals could all be interested as more of a DH option (or OF if Yankees lose Judge). Also, don’t count out his former team the Orioles, who he never wanted to leave and are beginning to create a good young core.
Jean Segura
2B/SS/ Age: 32/ Career: LAA ’12, MIL ’12-’15, ARI ’16, SEA ’17-’18, PHI ’19-’22
Achievements: 2x All-Star
From: Philadelphia/ To: Boston/ Contract: 3 years, $36m
Other Potential Options: Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, LA Angels, Seattle,
2022 Stats: .277 AVG, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 13 SB
Segura has been flat out one of the most consistent middle infielders in the game over the past decade, yet he seems to find himself bouncing around a lot. The Phillies declined his team option for nearly $20m for 2023, and he will hit free agency looking to get a multi-year deal. Although injuries plagued him a bit this past season, he had some big hits in the Phillies improbable run to an NL pennant and should attract a few suitors. Boston has a big hole to fill if they lose Bogaerts this offseason, and with Story potentially shifting to SS and Devers at 3B, 2B remains wide open. Ultimately this could be a good fit for Boston, a solid veteran bat that can help them compete over the next few years. It will be very tough to replace Xander in that lineup though.
Adam Frazier
2B/OF/ Age: 30/ Career: PIT ’16-’21, SD ’21, SEA ’21
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: Seattle/ To: Seattle/Contract: 4 years, $42m
Other Potential Options: Philadelphia, Boston, LA Angels, San Diego, Arizona
2022 Stats: .238 AVG, 3 HR, 42 RBI, 11 SB
The crafty utility infielder spent the majority of his career in Pittsburgh, where he became one of the better and lesser known stars in the league. His best season came in 2021 where he batted .305 with an OPS+ of 114 while splitting time in Pittsburgh and San Diego. His one season in Seattle wasn’t the brightest, but Frazier’s versatility and small ball ability will attract him to a lot of teams as an end of the lineup hitter. Ultimately, I think Seattle is going to want to keep their core together and possibly add some new pieces, so they may be willing to give Frazier a couple of extra years to stay. Other teams that can use a 2B/OF are Arizona, Boston, and the Angels who all may pursue him as well.
Trea Turner
SS/2B/ Age: 29/ Career: WSH ’15-’21, LAD ’21-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’19), 2x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger, NL Batting Champion (’21), 2x Stolen Base Leader (’18, ’21)
From: LA Dodgers/ To: Philadelphia/ Contract: 10 years, $340m (Player Option after Year 6)
Other Potential Options: LA Dodgers, NY Mets, CHI White Sox, San Francisco, St. Louis
2022 Stats: .298 AVG, 21 HR, 100 RBI, 27 SB
Easily the second biggest bat in this year’s class behind Judge, Turner will hit the market for the first time in his career coming off of another stellar season. He’s a great fielder, with insane speed, solid power for a middle infielder, and great contact hitter. There’s going to be a ton of teams in on Trea, as it’s tough to imagine he won’t land a 10 year deal like Lindor and Seager got. The rumor is he may want to come back to the East coast, and the Phillies would make so much sense in this case. They have an opening at SS and are willing to spend as much money to make a winner as they need. If not the Phillies, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dodgers break the bank and enter the $400m team salary threshold with another huge deal for Turner.
Carlos Correa
SS/ Age: 28/ Career: HOU ’15-’21, MIN ’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’17), 2x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove (’21), AL Rookie of the Year (’15)
From: Minnesota/ To: Minnesota/ Contract: 8 years, $260m (Player Option after Year 3)
Other Potential Options: LA Dodgers, CHI White Sox, CHI Cubs, Boston
2022 Stats: .291 AVG, 22 HR, 64 RBI, .366 OBP
Correa was the odd man out during last year’s stacked SS free agency class, as all of his opponents landed long-term deals besides him. He ended up settling for a highly weighted AAV with the Twins for only 3 years, including an opt out after the first year. Now at only 28 and in yet another stacked SS free agent class, Correa wants to see that long-term deal come into fruition. The Twins became a surprise competitor with Correa in the middle of their order, and with some money to spend, they might have liked the taste they got in 2022 enough to give him what he wants. I do think Correa will land a deal somewhere in the 7-9 year range, but the fact that he didn’t get anything more than a 3-year deal last offseason raises some eyebrows. Besides Minnesota, the Dodgers, White Sox, and Cubs could all be big players for the star.
Xander Bogaerts
SS/ Age: 30/ Career: BOS ’13-’22
Achievements: 2x WS Champion (’13, ’18), 4x All-Star, 5x Silver Slugger
From: Boston/ To: LA Dodgers/ Contract: 7 years, $217m
Other Potential Options: Philadelphia, Boston, Atlanta, LA Angels, San Francisco
2022 Stats: .307 AVG, 15 HR, 73 RBI, .377 OBP
Let’s just say the Dodgers swing and miss on both Turner and Correa, Bogaerts is next in line to be pursued for a likely $200m+ contract. It doesn’t look like the Red Sox were ever willing to give their star that much money, and it would be tough to believe at only 30 he won’t demand at least 6-8 years. Xander, by the way, is not a big fall off from the top two guys on the market at his position, as many would argue he’s superior to Correa. He’s an elite bat that hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. I can pretty much guarantee the Dodgers will not come away empty handed when it comes to the top three SS on the market. They’ll spend as much as they need, and worst case scenario they’ll go a cheaper route with Bogaerts.
Dansby Swanson
SS/ Age: 28/ Career: ATL ’16-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’21), 1x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove
From: Atlanta/ To: Atlanta/ Contract: 8 years, $200m
Other Potential Options: San Francisco, Arizona, LA Angels, Boston
2022 Stats: .277 AVG, 25 HR, 96 RBI, 18 SB
After being one of the most promising young prospects in baseball, Swanson took some time to truly pan out. Over the past two seasons he has truly become the player everyone expected him to be, with a stellar glove at SS and a powerful bat that drives in runs. He also couldn’t have chosen a better time to have the best year of his career with free agency looming. Swanson has become part of the heart and soul of the 2021 champions, and many believe him to be the next Freddie Freeman type face for the franchise. For this reason, I think Atlanta will go above and beyond to retain him, even though there should definitely be a few bidders willing to offer him 6-8 years. While the attraction of teams will be focused on Turner, Bogaerts, and Correa, I think Swanson gets a deal done early with Atlanta.
Brandon Drury
3B/2B/OF/ Age: 30/ Career: ARI ’15-’17, NYY ’18, TOR ’18-’20, NYM ’21, CIN ’22, SD ’22
Achievements: 1x Silver Slugger
From: San Diego/ To: CHI Cubs/ Contract: 4 years, $50m (Team Option after Year 3)
Other Potential Options: San Diego, Arizona, LA Angels, Detroit, Philadelphia
2022 Stats: .263 AVG, 28 HR, 87 RBI, .813 OPS
It was a true renaissance of a season for Drury, who found his way onto the Opening Day roster with the Reds after signing a minor league deal. He had been solid in a backup role with the Mets the year before, and he immediately bursted out as the starting 3B/OF. At the deadline he was dealt to San Diego where he became a key utility piece, getting big hits and in some ways outshining the teams other, more sexy, deadline moves in Bell, Soto, and Hader. Now on the market, and only 30, Drury could demand a multi-year deal, and I think he absolutely deserves one. He has been a solid player in the past as well and a rebuilding team could look to bring him in. In steps the Cubs, who are looking to add veteran help and have a big hole at 3B.
Aaron Judge
CF/RF/ Age: 30/ Career: NYY ’16-’22
Achievements: 4x All-Star, 3x Silver Slugger, 2x AL homerun leader (’17, ’22), AL RBI leader (’22), AL Rookie of the Year (’17)
From: NY Yankees/ To: San Francisco/ Contract: 10 years, $447m (Several Player Options after Year 4)
Other Potential Options: NY Yankees, LA Dodgers, San Diego, Houston, Boston, NY Mets
2022 Stats: .311 AVG, 62 HR, 131 RBI, 1.111 OPS
A lot of people probably immediately skipped down to this one, so welcome to my blog and I encourage you to check out all of the other predictions! Any who, here is the biggest prize of the offseason, Aaron Judge, who broke the AL single season homerun record held by Roger Maris. Prior to the season the Yankees offered Judge a stellar contract, well north of $200m, but he declined and decided to bet on himself. Well that decision easily bought him a couple more dollars as we will most likely see the biggest contract in baseball history this offseason. A lot of teams will be in on Judge, but in my eyes there are three true contenders: Yankees, Giants, and Dodgers. The Dodgers have an insane payroll but are always looking to stack up their team. But the Yankees and the Giants are going to be the two fighting it out, bid after bid. This was an extremely hard decision because quite frankly I think both teams will offer him a deal at 9 or 10 years and over $400m. The Giants though have nothing to lose, with most of their old core gone they’ll look to break the bank to build up a new contender. The Yankees also can’t afford to lose Judge, who was their entire offense all season long. I’m giving the edge to the Giants right now because they seem as eager as anyone to give him whatever he wishes. I would not be shocked if the Yankees match it all, feeling the pressure of a potential losing team if they lose their star.
Andrew Benintendi
LF/ Age: 28/ Career: BOS ’16-’20, KC ’21-’22, NYY ’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’18), 1x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove
From: NY Yankees/ To: Texas/ Contract: 4 years, $56m (Team Option after Year 2)
Other Potential Options: Tampa Bay, NY Yankees, San Francisco, Arizona
2022 Stats: .304 AVG, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB
In my opinion, Benintendi is one of the more interesting free agents on this years list. There really can be no in between as he can easily sign a several year deal or may have to settle for just a 1-year, high AAV type contract. Although he didn’t show very much power this year, his high batting average and star studded glove in the outfield should attract him to land something in the 10-15 mil/year range. The Rangers loaded up last offseason with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, and with Bruce Bochy set to take over as skipper, I think they’ll be big spenders this offseason to try to become a contender next year. Benintendi could be a good fit to add to the outfield with star CF Adolis Garcia. If not Texas, the Rays, Yankees, Giants, and Diamondbacks could all be interested due to their needs of outfield depth.
Brandon Nimmo
CF/ Age: 29/ Career: NYM ’16-’22
From: NY Mets/ To: Colorado/ Contract: 5 years, $120m
Other Potential Options: NY Mets, NY Yankees, Minnesota, Miami
2022 Stats: .274 AVG, 16 HR, 64 RBI, .367 OBP
Nimmo has been one of the league’s best table setters since 2018, with his high OBP, sneaky power, and he had arguably a gold glove year in CF in 2022. A lot of rumors have circulated around the lefty, as the Mets are going to make a hard push to retain one of their most important pieces. But in steps the Rockies, Nimmo’s childhood team, and one that is in big need of OF help. The rumor has already begun the Rockies are gearing up to offer Nimmo well over $100m over 5 years. I’m sure the Mets really want to keep him, but matching that price with all of their other needs might not be worth it. If the Rockies give him a king’s ransom, then it’s safe to say that’s where he’ll go, but if it’s all talk, look for the Mets and possibly even the Yankees to enter a bidding war for him.
Joc Pederson
LF/ Age: 30/ Career: LAD ’14-’20, CHC ’21, ATL ’21, SF ’22
Achievements: 2x WS Champion (’20, ’21), 2x All-Star
From: San Francisco/ To: NY Yankees/ Contract: 3 years, $46.5m (Team Option after Year 2)
Other Potential Options: San Francisco, Arizona, Minnesota, Houston
2022 Stats: .274 AVG, 23 HR, 70 RBI, .874 OPS
Whether the Yankees have the luxury of bringing back Aaron Judge or not, their outfield still remains in need of some work. Aaron Hicks is no longer an every day player, and the goal would be to have Giancarlo Stanton primarily DH, leaving LF wide open. Pederson is coming off of arguably the best year of his career with the Giants, batting for average and with power. He’s built perfectly for the short porch in RF, and I think this is a move the Yanks need to consider no matter what happens with Judge. He settled for a 1-year deal this year, and at only 30 it’s safe to assume he’ll be landing at least a 2-3 year deal this winter. Don’t count out the Giants, Twins, and Astros to check in given it’s the right situation.
J.D. Martinez
DH/LF/ Age: 35/ Career: HOU ’11-’13, DET ’14-’17, ARI ’17, BOS ’18-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’18), 5x All-Star, 3x Silver Slugger, AL RBI leader (’18)
From: Boston/ To: Minnesota/ Contract: 1 year, $14m
Other Potential Options: Milwaukee, NY Mets, CHI White Sox, CHI Cubs
2022 Stats: .274 AVG, 16 HR, 62 RBI, .341 OBP
One of the best DH’s in the league over the past decade, Martinez’s bat never seemed to slow down well into his 30’s. But this year saw a bit of a loss in power with only 16 HR’s compared to his usual 25+. Still, he hit for average for most of the season and will be sought after as the best DH option on the market. His days with Boston are probably over but any team that needs a good righty bat and DH will be on call. The Twins seem like a very solid fit, as their DH spot was up for grabs ever since they let Nelson Cruz go. A few teams in the NL will also be looking at him, including the Brewers, Cubs, and possibly even the Mets. But with his questionable power, I don’t see him getting a multi-year deal.
Andrew McCutchen
DH/LF/ Age: 36/ Career: PIT ’09-’17, SF ’18, NYY ’18, PHI ’19-’21, MIL ’22
Achievements: NL MVP (’13), 5x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger
From: Milwaukee/ To: San Diego/ Contract: 1 year, $6m
Other Potential Options: Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay
2022 Stats: .237 AVG, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 8 SB
Another former superstar that will hit the market, McCutchen settled on a 1-year deal with Milwaukee this past year and became their primary DH. He has definitely lost a step with the bat, only hitting .237 this year and not producing much power in the process. Still, a contender should be looking at Cutch to be a platoon DH on a short 1-year deal, as he can provide solid hitting depth as a bench player. The Brewers could be interested, and the Pirates seem like an interesting choice for him to return to end his career. Ultimately I can see the Padres adding him, especially if they lose Josh Bell in free agency.
Jacob deGrom
SP/ Age: 34/ Career: NYM ’14-’22
Achievements: 2x NL Cy Young (’18, ’19), 4x All-Star, 2x NL Strikeout leader (’19, ’20), NL ERA leader (’18), NL Rookie of the Year (’14)
From: NY Mets/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 4 years, $180m (Player Option after Year 3)
Other Potential Options: Atlanta, LA Dodgers, Texas, St. Louis, NY Yankees, San Diego, Houston
2022 Stats: 5-4, 3.08 ERA, 102 Ks, 0.75 WHIP
The big fish of the offseason, right behind Aaron Judge we have the best pitcher in the game hitting the market. At 34, and coming off of back-to-back years full of injuries, a 3 or 4 year deal is probably what to expect, with an extremely high AAV. Max Scherzer set the mark last offseason, when the Mets landed him for $43.3m annually, so deGrom will be looking to exceed that. And he’ll definitely get it as there will be a bunch of bidders including the Rangers, Braves, and even possibly the Yankees. Jake loves New York, and the Mets and their fanbase love him possibly even more. Steve Cohen is going to go above and beyond to retain him, and I think it’ll come down to something in the $45m-$47m/year range, which will be the new MLB record. If this was the Wilpon’s, deGrom would be as good as gone but the new regime will match the price.
Justin Verlander
SP/ Age: 39/ Career: DET ’05-’17, HOU ’17-’22
Achievements: 2x WS Champion (’17, ’22), AL MVP (’11), 2x Cy Young (’11, ’19), 9x All-Star, 4x AL wins leader (’09, ’11, ’19, ’22), 2x AL ERA leader (’11, ’22), 5x AL Strikeouts leader (’09, ’11, ’12, ’16, ’18), Triple Crown (’11), AL Rookie of the Year (’06), 3 No-Hitters (’07, ’11, ’19)
From: Houston/ To: Texas/ Contract: 2 years, $72m
Other Potential Options: Houston, NY Yankees, Toronto, LA Dodgers, LA Angels
2022 Stats: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 185 Ks, 0.83 WHIP
After missing two full seasons from Tommy John surgery, the Astros decided to retain their future first ballot Hall-of-Famer on a one-year deal. Well although he’ll be 40 at the start of next season, Verlander put together an incredible Cy Young caliber season that proved the two years off only made him stronger. Now it’s definitely plausible to see him get a multi-year deal with something that exceeds well beyond the $25m he made this year. The Astros would love to retain him, and the Yankees were my prediction on who would land him last offseason. But the Rangers are a sneaky team that should be looking to spend and build a winner. Plus, staying in Texas and playing for a 3x World Series champ in Bruce Bochy has to be very enticing. I’d say the Rangers splurge and give him more than anyone wants to offer on a 2-year deal.
Clayton Kershaw (WRITTEN BEFORE HE SIGNED EXTENSION)
SP/ Age: 34/ Career: LAD ’08-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’20), NL MVP (’14), 3x NL Cy Young (’11, ’13, ’14), 9x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 5x NL ERA leader (’11-’14, ’17), 3x NL wins leader (’11, ’14, ’17), 3x NL Strikeouts leader (’11, ’13, ’15), Triple Crown (’11), No-Hitter (’14)
From: LA Dodgers/ To: LA Dodgers/ Contract: 3 years, $90m
Other Potential Options: Texas, LA Angels, NY Yankees
2022 Stats: 12-3, 2.28 ERA, 137 Ks, 0.94 WHIP
It’s tough to imagine Kershaw in any other jersey besides Dodger blue, as he settled for a one-year deal to return this season and showed glimpses of prime Kershaw. Now at 34, the injury issues are still a cause for concern, but he should be able to land a multi-year deal after staying relatively healthy this season. The Dodgers are going to lose Walker Buehler to Tommy John surgery for all of next year, and Tyler Anderson is a free agent. I think it may be more important than ever for them to lock him up for several years to potentially finish his career in LA. I really don’t see Kershaw going anywhere else.
Carlos Rodón
SP/ Age: 29/ Career: CWS ’15-’21, SF ’22
Achievements: 2x All-Star, No-Hitter (’21)
From: San Francisco/ To: NY Yankees/ Contract: 5 years, $125m (Player Option after Year 3)
Other Potential Options: San Francisco, Atlanta, CHI Cubs, NY Mets
2022 Stats: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 237 Ks, 1.03 WHIP
Coming off of his first all-star season, Rodon signed a two-year deal with the Giants including a player option after year 1. He followed up with another dominant year, becoming one of the better and most dominant lefty starters in the game. Now it’s extremely likely he’ll opt out, and heading into his age-30 season, he should command a long-term deal. The Giants, Braves, and Cubs can all be big contenders to bring in the star, but one team that needs to come away with a top starter, especially a lefty, are the Yankees. This could be a perfect fit to replace Jordan Montgomery, and add to a rotation with Cole, Severino, Montas, and German next year. This is a move the Yankees need to make and can really flip the script on that starting rotation.
Chris Bassitt
SP/ Age: 33/ Career: CWS ’14, OAK ’15-’21, NYM ’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: NY Mets/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 4 years, $78m
Other Potential Options: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Seattle
2022 Stats: 15-9, 3.42 ERA, 167 Ks, 1.14 WHIP
After being dealt to the Mets in the offseason, Bassitt had a stellar season becoming one of the teams most consistent arms in the rotation. Now he’ll reject his $18m mutual option and hit the market where he should expect to make just as much on a multi-year deal. Several teams who are in need of a high end 2nd or 3rd starter, such as the Phillies, Twins, and Mariners will all probably show interest. But his relationship with the team, and the Mets willingness to spend at any cost, may be enough to bring him back and help bolster a rotation that has a lot of free agents set to hit the market.
Sean Manaea
SP/ Age: 30/ Career: OAK ’16-’21, SD ’22
Achievements: No-Hitter (’18)
From: San Diego/ To: Philadelphia/ Contract: 3 years, $33.5m (Player Option after Year 1)
Other Potential Options: Texas, Detroit, NY Yankees, San Francisco
2022 Stats: 8-9, 4.96 ERA, 156 Ks, 1.30 WHIP
Being one of the cornerstones of the A’s rotation during their deep run, Manaea was dealt to the Padres to join Bob Melvin. He had a solid season, not great, but everyone knows the potential of Manaea and he should still demand a multi-year deal. The Rangers could be interested as they’ll look to bolster their rotation, and the Yankees and Giants could both be looking his way as well. But for the Phillies, Kyle Gibson’s contract is coming off of the books and Manaea can be a very solid fourth starter behind Nola, Wheeler, and Suarez. I feel like the contract he lands will be similar to Rodon’s last year but for not as much money. It’ll probably be 2 or 3 years, for around $10m with a player option after the first year so he can cash out next offseason if he has a big year.
José Quintana
SP/ Age: 33/ Career: CWS ’12-’17, CHC ’17-’20, LAA ’21, SF ’21, PIT ’22, STL ’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: St. Louis/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 3 years, $48m (Team Option after Year 2)
Other Potential Options: Philadelphia, St. Louis, Boston, Tampa Bay, Seattle
2022 Stats: 6-7, 2.93 ERA, 137 Ks, 1.21 WHIP
I know this is the third SP I have the Mets signing in the top tier, but in reality they have the majority of their rotation set to hit the market so they will need to spend on some starters. They went the majority of 2022 without a lefty starter, having David Peterson being the only recurring lefty arm when injuries occurred. This year I think it will be important to add a good veteran lefty and Quintana erupted this past year, back to his old consistent form, after a couple of down years. He settled for a minor league deal last offseason, but it’s likely he will get a 2 or 3 year deal for a decent chunk of cash now. The Phillies, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Rays could all be looking for rotation help and will be players. This is a not so sexy move I think the Mets would benefit a lot on, and although $48m is a lot, that may be how they drag him away.
Taijuan Walker
SP/ Age: 30/ Career: SEA ’13-’16/’20, ARI ’17-’19, TOR ’20, NYM ’21-’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: NY Mets/ To: Boston/ Contract: 4 years, $74m (Player Option after Year 3)
Other Potential Options: St. Louis, Toronto, NY Mets, NY Yankees, Atlanta
2022 Stats: 12-5, 3.49 ERA, 132 Ks, 1.19 WHIP
The Mets can’t bring everyone back, and my hunch is that Taijuan is going to attract a contract very close to $100m this offseason. He has now had back-to-back great seasons where he has proven he can stay healthy and be dominant. At only 30, a 4 or 5 year deal is a high likelihood at somewhere between $15m-$20m a year. The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Cardinals all could be big players for Walker and have big needs on a good third or fourth arm in the rotation. The Red Sox though seem like a perfect fit, as they are going into what looks like a rebuild but isn’t quite that. The hope is that Chris Sale will be able to return next year, and with Nathan Eovaldi hitting the market, Walker would be a great addition for the next several years.
Kenley Jansen
CP/ Age: 35/ Career: LAD ’10-’21, ATL ’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’20), 3x All-Star, 2x NL Reliever of the Year (’16, ’17), 2x NL Saves leader (’17, ’22)
From: Atlanta/ To: San Francisco/ Contract: 2 years, $36m
Other Potential Options: LA Dodgers, Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Diego, NY Yankees
2022 Stats: 41 SVs, 3.38 ERA, 85 Ks, 1.05 WHIP
After spending the better part of a decade with the Dodgers, Jansen signed a one-year deal with Atlanta and had a very up-and-down season as the team’s primary closer. At the deadline, the Braves traded for Raisel Iglesias who had previously signed a multi-year extension with the Angels and is a younger option to be the team’s future closer. That means Jansen will hit the market again and probably not return, but despite his struggles at times, he still led the NL in saves with 41, becoming the 31st member of the 300 save club in MLB history. The west coast may look his way again, and the Giants seem like a great fit due to their need of reliever arms. Camilo Doval has a great season for them as the closer this past year, but adding Jansen could give them another great late inning choice to platoon in save opportunities.
Edwin Díaz (WRITTEN BEFORE HE SIGNED EXTENSION)
CP/ Age: 28/ Career: SEA ’16-’18, NYM ’19-’22
Achievements: 2x All-Star, AL Saves leader (’18), AL Reliever of the Year (’18)
From: NY Mets/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 5 years, $115m (Player Option after Year 3)
Other Potential Options: LA Dodgers, LA Angels, Miami, San Francisco, Cincinnati
2022 Stats: 32 SVs, 1.31 ERA, 118 Ks, 0.84 WHIP
After bursting onto the scene in 2018 with Seattle, Diaz was part of the Kelenic-Cano trade that brought him to to the Mets in 2019. He did not fair well in his first season in New York, posting a 5+ ERA and blowing saves left and right. But he bounced back in the shortened 2020 season and 2021, and followed up with the best year of his career this past season posting a 1.31 ERA and averaging about 17 Ks/9 innings. Now he’s set to hit the market and will most likely attract the wealthiest contract a reliever has gotten in history. No ninth inning man has ever surpassed $100m, with Aroldis Chapman still holding the record when the Yankees gave him $86m after 2016. Diaz has expressed his interest in staying with the Mets, and the organization has grown to love their dominant closer. I think the Mets retain him, but look out for Angels, Dodgers, and Giants to all be potential bidders.
Craig Kimbrel
CP/ Age: 34/ Career: ATL ’10-’14, SD ’15, BOS ’16-’18, CHC ’19-’21, CWS ’21, LAD ’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’18), 8x All-Star, 2x Reliever of the Year (’14, ’17), 4x NL Saves leader (’11-’14), NL Rookie of the Year (’11)
From: LA Dodgers/ To: LA Angels/ Contract: 1 year, $12m
Other Potential Options: Boston, Houston, Miami, CHI Cubs
2022 Stats: 22 SVs, 3.75 ERA, 72 Ks, 1.32 WHIP
Kimbrel is probably hands down the best reliever in baseball over the past decade and has been pretty much a purely consistent ninth inning man before his 2020 struggles with the Cubs. This past year, he was the Dodgers go-to closer, but struggled a bit and began platooning with other more consistent arms in the Dodgers bullpen. He’ll hit the market this offseason and will surely attract a bunch of suitors who are in need of closer depth. A one-year deal is probably all he’ll get with a pretty high AAV to see if he is past his prime or can still be a consistent closer. The Angels traded away Raisel Iglesias at the deadline and are in need for some bullpen help. I think he could be a perfect fit there with Boston and Miami having high consideration due to their closer needs as well.
Taylor Rogers
CP/ Age: 31/ Career: MIN ’16-’21, SD ’22, MIL ’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: Milwaukee/ To: LA Dodgers/ Contract: 4 years, $50m (Team Option after Year 2)
Other Potential Options: Toronto, NY Yankees, Seattle, Milwaukee
2022 Stats: 31 SVs, 4.76 ERA, 84 Ks, 1.18 WHIP
The Dodgers should definitely be in the market for possibly a couple of late inning relievers this offseason with a few of their arms hitting the market. Taylor Rogers (not to be confused with his brother Tyler on the Giants) has been quietly one of the better relievers in baseball over the last few seasons. He was dealt from the Padres to the Brewers in part of the Josh Hader deal at the deadline, and struggled a bit in Milwaukee yet finished with 31 saves. At only 31 and a lot of potential, I can see Rogers getting a multi-year deal from someone to be part of a closer by committee system. The Dodgers are perfect for that with their young depth in the bullpen. A team option at some point in his contract should also be highly likely with some concern of his late season struggles this past year.
Will Smith
RP/CP/ Age: 33/ Career: KC ’12-’13, MIL ’14-’16, SF ’16-’19, ATL ’20-’22, HOU ’22
Achievements: 2x WS Champion (’21, ’22), 1x All-Star
From: Houston/ To: Tampa Bay/ Contract: 2 years, $20m
Other Potential Options: NY Yankees, Houston, LA Dodgers, Boston
2022 Stats: 5 SVs, 3.97 ERA, 65 Ks, 1.41 WHIP
Rounding out the list we have Will Smith who has been a model of consistency pretty much every year since 2013. A 3.97 ERA in 2022 is the highest he has had in that timeframe as he saw himself taking a backseat to both Kenley Jansen and Ryan Pressly in his split season between Houston and Atlanta. Before that, he was the Braves closer in 2021 where he record 37 saves. Now he’ll hit the market again and should command a one or two year deal with decent AAV. The Rays feel like a great fit, a team that is known for their amazing pitching development, and can get the best out of Smith as he ends his career. He’s also relatively cheap, which in some ways the Rays care more about.
Other Notable Free Agents:
Gary Sánchez
C/ Age: 29/ Career: NYY ’15-’21, MIN ’22
Achievements: 2x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger
From: Minnesota/ To: Miami/ Contract: 1 year, $4m
2022 Stats: .205 AVG, 16 HR, 61 RBI, .282 OBP
Martín Maldonado
C/ Age: 36/ Career: MIL ’11-’16, LAA ’17-’18, HOU ’18/’19-’22, KC ’19, CHC ’19
Achievements: WS Champion (’22), 1x Gold Glove
From: Houston/ To: Houston/ Contract: 2 years, $12m
2022 Stats: .186 AVG, 15 HR, 45 RBI, .600 OPS
Anthony Rizzo
1B/ Age: 33/ Career: SD ’11, CHC ’12-’21, NYY ’21-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’16), 3x All-Star, 4x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, 1x Platinum Glove
From: NY Yankees/ To: NY Yankees/ Contract: 1 year, $19.7m (Qualifying Offer)
2022 Stats: .224 AVG, 32 HR, 75 RBI, .817 OPS
Yuli Gurriel
1B/ Age: 38/ Career: HOU ’16-’22
Achievements: 2x WS Champion (’17, ’22), 1x Gold Glove, AL Batting champion (’21)
From: Houston/ To: Texas/ Contract: 2 years, $15m (Team Option after Year 1)
2022 Stats: .242 AVG, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 8 SB
César Hernández
2B/SS/ Age: 32/ Career: PHI ’13-’19, CLE ’20-’21, CWS ’21, WSH ’22
Achievements: 1x Gold Glove
From: Washington/ To: Washington/ Contract: 1 year, $4.5m
2022 Stats: .248 AVG, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 10 SB
Justin Turner
3B/ Age: 38/ Career: BAL ’09-’10, NYM ’10-’13, LAD ’14-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’20), 2x All-Star, NLCS MVP (’17)
From: LA Dodgers/ To: LA Dodgers/ Contract: 2 years, $17m (Team Option after Year 1)
2022 Stats: .278 AVG, 13 HR, 81 RBI, .788 OPS
Evan Longoria
3B/ Age: 37/ Career: TB ’08-’17, SF ’18-’22
Achievements: 3x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger, 3x Gold Glove, AL Rookie of the Year (’18)
From: San Francisco/ To: Arizona/ Contract: 1 year, $12m
2022 Stats: .244 AVG, 14 HR, 42 RBI, .767 OPS
David Peralta
RF/ Age: 35/ Career: ARI ’14-’22, TB ’22
Achievements: 1x Silver Slugger, 1x Gold Glove
From: Tampa Bay/ To: Cleveland/ Contract: 1 year, $7.5m
2022 Stats: .251 AVG, 12 HR, 59 RBI, .731 OPS
Jurickson Profar
UTIL/ Age: 29/ Career: TEX ’12-’18, OAK ’19, SD ’20-’22
From: San Diego/ To: CHI Cubs/ Contract: 4 years, $54m (Team Option after Year 3)
2022 Stats: .243 AVG, 15 HR, 58 RBI, .331 OBP
Michael Brantley
RF/ Age: 35/ Career: CLE ’09-’18, HOU ’19-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’22), 5x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger
From: Houston/ To: LA Dodgers/ Contract: 1 year, $8m
2022 Stats: .288 AVG, 5 HR, 26 RBI, .370 OBP
Joey Gallo
OF/ Age: 29/ Career: TEX ’15-’21, NYY ’21-’22, LAD ’22
Achievements: 2x All-Star, 2x Gold Glove
From: LA Dodgers/ To: San Francisco/ Contract: 1 year, $4m
2022 Stats: .160 AVG, 19 HR, 47 RBI, .303 OBP
Michael Conforto
OF/ Age: 29/ Career: NYM ’15-’21
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: FREE AGENCY/ To: LA Angels/ Contract: 1 year, $8.5m
2022 Stats: DNP – Free Agent/Injured
Mitch Haniger
RF/1B/DH/ Age: 31/ Career: ARI ’16, SEA ’17-’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: Seattle/ To: San Diego/ Contract: 3 years, $50m
2022 Stats: .246 AVG, 11 HR, 34 RBI, .736 OPS
Wil Myers
RF/1B/ Age: 31/ Career: TB ’13-’14, SD ’15-’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star, AL Rookie of the Year (’13)
From: San Diego/ To: CHI White Sox/ Contract: 1 year, $9.5m
2022 Stats: .261 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI, .713 OPS
Nelson Cruz
DH/ Age: 42/ Career: MIL ’05, TEX ’06-’13, BAL ’14, SEA ’15-’18, MIN ’19-’21, TB ’21, WSH ’22
Achievements: 7x All-Star, 4x Silver Slugger, AL Homerun leader (’14), AL RBI leader (’17), ALCS MVP (’11)
From: Washington/ To: Baltimore/ Contract: 1 year, $4m
2022 Stats: .234 AVG, 10 HR, 64 RBI, .313 OBP
Tyler Anderson
SP/ Age: 32/ Career: COL ’16-’19, SF ’20, PIT ’21, SEA ’21, LAD ’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: LA Dodgers/ To: LA Dodgers/ Contract: 1 year, $19.7m (Qualifying Offer)
2022 Stats: 15-5, 2.57 ERA, 138 Ks, 1.00 WHIP
Nathan Eovaldi
SP/ Age: 32/ Career: LAD ’11-’12, MIA ’12-’14, NYY ’15-’16, TB ’18, BOS ’18-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’18), 1x All-Star
From: Boston/ To: Texas/ Contract: 2 years, $18m
2022 Stats: 6-3, 3.87 ERA, 103 Ks, 1.23 WHIP
Martín Pérez
SP/ Age: 31/ Carrer: TEX ’12-’18/ ’22, MIN ’19, BOS ’20-’21
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: Texas/ To: San Diego/ Contract: 2 years, $38m
2022 Stats: 12-8, 2.89 ERA, 169 Ks, 1.26 WHIP
Noah Syndergaard
SP/ Age: 30/ Career: NYM ’15-’21, LAA ’22, PHI ’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: Philadelphia/ To: Texas/ Contract: 1 year, $11m
2022 Stats: 10-10, 3.94 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.25 WHIP
Jameson Taillon
SP/ Age: 31/ Career: PIT ’16-’20, NYY ’21-’22
From: NY Yankees/ To: Kansas City/ Contract: 3 years, $31m (Player Option after Year 2)
2022 Stats: 14-5, 3.91 ERA, 151 Ks, 1.13 WHIP
Zack Greinke
SP/ Age: 39/ Career: KC ’04-’10/ ’22, MIL ’11-’12, LAA ’12, LAD ’13-’15, ARI ’16-’19, HOU ’19-’21
Achievements: AL Cy Young (’09), 6x All-Star, 6x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger, 2x MLB ERA leader (’09, ’15)
From: Kansas City/ To: Kansas City/ Contract: 1 year, $8m
2022 Stats: 4-9, 3.68 ERA, 73 Ks, 1.34 WHIP
Andrew Chafin
RP/ Age: 32/ Career: ARI ’14-’20, CHC ’20-’21, OAK ’21, DET ’22
Achievements: Combined No-Hitter (’21)
From: Detroit/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 3 years, $21m (Team Option after Year 2)
2022 Stats: 3 SVs, 2.83 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.17 WHIP
Zack Britton
RP/ Age: 34/ Career: BAL ’11-’18, NYY ’18-’22
Achievements: 2x All-Star, AL Reliever of the Year (’16), AL Saves leader (’16)
From: NY Yankees/ To: Detroit/ Contract: 1 year, $4.5m
2022 Stats: 0.2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1 K, 6 BB
Craig Stammen
RP/ Age: 38/ Career: WSH ’09-’15, SD ’17-’22
From: San Diego/ To: Atlanta/ Contract: 2 years, $12m
2022 Stats: 1-2, 4.43 ERA, 35 Ks, 1.35 WHIP
Adam Ottavino
RP/ Age: 37/ Career: STL ’10, COL ’12-’18, NYY ’19-’20, BOS ’21, NYM ’22
From: NY Mets/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 2 years, $15m
2022 Stats: 3 SVs, 2.06 ERA, 79 Ks, 0.97 WHIP
Rafael Montero (WRITTEN BEFORE HE SIGNED EXTENSION)
RP/ Age: 32/ Career: NYM ’14-’17, TEX ’19-’20, SEA ’21, HOU ’21-’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’22), Combined No-Hitter (’22)
From: Houston/ To: Seattle/ Contract: 2 years, $16.5m
2022 Stats: 14 SVs, 2.37 ERA, 73 Ks, 1.02 WHIP
Seth Lugo
RP/ Age: 32/ Career: NYM ’16-’22
From: NY Mets/ To: St. Louis/ Contract: 3 years, $28.5m (Team Option after Year 2)
2022 Stats: 3 SVs, 3.60 ERA, 69 Ks, 1.17 WHIP
David Robertson
RP/CP/ Age: 37/ Career: NYY ’08-’14/ ’17-’18, CWS ’15-’17, PHI ’19/ ’22, TB ’21, CHC ’22
Achievements: WS Champion (’09), 1x All-Star
From: Philadelphia/ To: NY Mets/ Contract: 1 year, $7m
2022 Stats: 20 SVs, 2.40 ERA, 81 Ks, 1.16 WHIP
Michael Fulmer
RP/CP/ Age: 29/ Career: DET ’16-’22, MIN ’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star, AL Rookie of the Year (’16)
From: Minnesota/ To: NY Yankees/ Contract: 2 years, $21m
2022 Stats: 3 SVs, 3.39 ERA, 61 Ks, 1.37 WHIP
Corey Knebel
RP/CP/ Age: 31/ Career: DET ’14, MIL ’15-’20, LAD ’21, PHI ’22
Achievements: 1x All-Star
From: Philadelphia/ To: Miami/ Contract: 3 years, $25.5m (Team Option after Year 2)
2022 Stats: 12 SVs, 3.43 ERA, 41 Ks, 1.37 WHIP
Brad Hand
RP/CP/ Age: 32/ Career: MIA ’11-’15, SD ’16-’18, CLE ’18-’20, WSH ’21, TOR ’21, NYM ’21, PHI ’22
Achievements: 3x All-Star, AL Saves leader (’20)
From: Philadelphia/ To: Philadelphia/ Contract: 2 years, $17m
2022 Stats: 5 SVs, 2.80 ERA, 38 Ks, 1.33 WHIP
The Sports World According To Paul 